Maricopa, Arizona — Presidential Election Results
Maricopa, Arizona has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 2.1 pts more Dem. than Arizona overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 479,967 | 53.2% | 10.3 pts (93,284 votes) | 901,699 | — | 4.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 679,455 | 57.0% | 14.6 pts (174,606 votes) | 1,192,751 | -4.0 pts | 4.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 746,448 | 54.7% | 10.6 pts (144,282 votes) | 1,364,962 | +4.0 pts | 2.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 749,885 | 54.5% | 10.7 pts (147,597 votes) | 1,376,558 | -0.2 pts | 1.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 747,361 | 47.7% | 2.8 pts (44,454 votes) | 1,567,834 | +7.9 pts | 0.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 1,040,774 | 50.3% | 2.2 pts (45,109 votes) | 2,068,144 | +5.3 pts | 1.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 1,051,531 | 51.0% | 3.5 pts (71,515 votes) | 2,061,574 | -5.7 pts | 2.1 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 3,092,197 | 29.2% of population |
| 2004 | 3,417,860 | 34.9% of population |
| 2008 | 3,771,061 | 36.2% of population |
| 2012 | 3,947,505 | 34.9% of population |
| 2016 | 4,256,143 | 36.8% of population |
| 2020 | 4,445,415 | 46.5% of population |
| 2024 | 4,673,096 | 44.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Maricopa shifted 7.2 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Maricopa has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Arizona's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arizona Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Maricopa voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Maricopa has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Maricopa?
Maricopa's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Joseph R Biden Jr (Democratic) won by 2.2 points (45,109 votes) out of 2,068,144 total votes cast.
Has Maricopa ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Maricopa changed which party won the county in: 2020, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Maricopa?
The widest margin on record for Maricopa was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 14.7 points.
How many votes were cast in Maricopa relative to its population?
In 2024, 2,061,574 votes were recorded in Maricopa against a total population of 4,673,096 (44.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Maricopa a presidential bellwether county?
Maricopa has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Arizona's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).