Valencia, New Mexico — Presidential Election Results
Valencia, New Mexico has voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2016. In 2024, it was 22.8 pts more Rep. than New Mexico overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 10,803 | 50.5% | 4.6 pts (984 votes) | 21,377 | — | 4.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 14,474 | 55.6% | 12.3 pts (3,204 votes) | 26,012 | -7.7 pts | 11.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 15,366 | 53.2% | 7.7 pts (2,230 votes) | 28,899 | +20.3 pts | 7.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 13,511 | 48.7% | 2.5 pts (686 votes) | 27,728 | -5.2 pts | 8.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 13,215 | 47.9% | 8.6 pts (2,374 votes) | 27,592 | -12.5 pts | 19.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 17,364 | 53.8% | 9.6 pts (3,101 votes) | 32,277 | +0.1 pts | 20.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 19,057 | 57.3% | 16.4 pts (5,448 votes) | 33,277 | -6.9 pts | 22.8 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 66,453 | 32.2% of population |
| 2004 | 69,021 | 37.7% of population |
| 2008 | 74,879 | 38.6% of population |
| 2012 | 76,789 | 36.1% of population |
| 2016 | 75,599 | 36.5% of population |
| 2020 | 76,507 | 42.2% of population |
| 2024 | 80,813 | 41.2% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Valencia shifted 11.9 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Valencia has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other New Mexico Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Valencia voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Valencia has voted Democratic in 2 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 5 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Valencia?
Valencia's closest recorded margin was in 2012, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 2.6 points (686 votes) out of 27,728 total votes cast.
Has Valencia ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Valencia changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2016, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Valencia?
The widest margin on record for Valencia was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 16.7 points.
How many votes were cast in Valencia relative to its population?
In 2024, 33,277 votes were recorded in Valencia against a total population of 80,813 (41.2% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Valencia a presidential bellwether county?
Valencia has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).