Guadalupe, New Mexico — Presidential Election Results
Guadalupe, New Mexico has voted Democratic in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 5.4 pts more Rep. than New Mexico overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 1,076 | 65.2% | 32.0 pts (528 votes) | 1,651 | — | 32.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 1,340 | 59.1% | 18.8 pts (426 votes) | 2,267 | -13.6 pts | 19.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 1,557 | 70.9% | 42.7 pts (937 votes) | 2,196 | +24.1 pts | 27.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 1,488 | 69.7% | 43.6 pts (931 votes) | 2,135 | +2.5 pts | 34.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 970 | 53.1% | 20.5 pts (375 votes) | 1,827 | -21.6 pts | 14.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 1,234 | 56.4% | 14.5 pts (317 votes) | 2,189 | -9.2 pts | 3.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Kamala D Harris | Democratic | 959 | 49.7% | 0.7 pts (14 votes) | 1,928 | -14.0 pts | 5.4 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4,693 | 35.2% of population |
| 2004 | 4,731 | 47.9% of population |
| 2008 | 4,701 | 46.7% of population |
| 2012 | 4,591 | 46.5% of population |
| 2016 | 4,369 | 41.8% of population |
| 2020 | 4,442 | 49.3% of population |
| 2024 | 4,385 | 44.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Guadalupe shifted 31.8 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Guadalupe has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other New Mexico Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Guadalupe voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Guadalupe has voted Democratic in 7 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 0 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Guadalupe?
Guadalupe's closest recorded margin was in 2024, when Kamala D Harris (Democratic) won by 0.7 points (14 votes) out of 1,928 total votes cast.
Has Guadalupe ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Guadalupe has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Guadalupe?
The widest margin on record for Guadalupe was in 2012, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 45.5 points.
How many votes were cast in Guadalupe relative to its population?
In 2024, 1,928 votes were recorded in Guadalupe against a total population of 4,385 (44.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Guadalupe a presidential bellwether county?
Guadalupe has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).