San Juan, New Mexico — Presidential Election Results
San Juan, New Mexico has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 38.6 pts more Rep. than New Mexico overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 21,434 | 61.8% | 27.3 pts (9,454 votes) | 34,657 | — | 28.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 29,525 | 65.6% | 32.6 pts (14,682 votes) | 45,006 | -4.8 pts | 32.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 27,869 | 59.9% | 21.2 pts (9,841 votes) | 46,511 | +11.6 pts | 36.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 28,849 | 62.4% | 28.1 pts (12,994 votes) | 46,237 | -7.6 pts | 39.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 27,946 | 60.6% | 32.7 pts (15,081 votes) | 46,110 | -7.9 pts | 46.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 32,874 | 62.9% | 28.3 pts (14,791 votes) | 52,294 | +7.9 pts | 40.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 34,264 | 64.7% | 31.7 pts (16,800 votes) | 52,926 | -3.5 pts | 38.6 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 114,131 | 30.4% of population |
| 2004 | 123,179 | 36.5% of population |
| 2008 | 126,905 | 36.7% of population |
| 2012 | 129,756 | 35.6% of population |
| 2016 | 127,954 | 36.0% of population |
| 2020 | 121,387 | 43.1% of population |
| 2024 | 120,817 | 43.8% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in San Juan shifted 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
San Juan has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other New Mexico Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has San Juan voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, San Juan has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in San Juan?
San Juan's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 21.4 points (9,841 votes) out of 46,511 total votes cast.
Has San Juan ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- San Juan has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in San Juan?
The widest margin on record for San Juan was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 37.0 points.
How many votes were cast in San Juan relative to its population?
In 2024, 52,926 votes were recorded in San Juan against a total population of 120,817 (43.8% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is San Juan a presidential bellwether county?
San Juan has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%).