Lincoln, New Mexico — Presidential Election Results
Lincoln, New Mexico has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 45.3 pts more Rep. than New Mexico overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 4,458 | 65.8% | 35.9 pts (2,431 votes) | 6,772 | — | 37.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,070 | 67.3% | 36.0 pts (3,248 votes) | 9,014 | +1.0 pts | 35.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 6,001 | 61.9% | 25.4 pts (2,466 votes) | 9,696 | +10.7 pts | 41.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 5,961 | 64.5% | 32.7 pts (3,019 votes) | 9,242 | -8.1 pts | 44.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 5,896 | 66.2% | 40.0 pts (3,565 votes) | 8,902 | -9.4 pts | 52.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 6,942 | 67.4% | 36.4 pts (3,748 votes) | 10,306 | +6.4 pts | 48.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 6,942 | 68.3% | 38.5 pts (3,909 votes) | 10,165 | -2.2 pts | 45.3 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 19,477 | 34.8% of population |
| 2004 | 20,242 | 44.5% of population |
| 2008 | 20,458 | 47.4% of population |
| 2012 | 20,194 | 45.8% of population |
| 2016 | 19,397 | 45.9% of population |
| 2020 | 20,304 | 50.8% of population |
| 2024 | 20,025 | 50.8% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lincoln shifted 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lincoln has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other New Mexico Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lincoln voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lincoln has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lincoln?
Lincoln's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 25.9 points (2,466 votes) out of 9,696 total votes cast.
Has Lincoln ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Lincoln has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lincoln?
The widest margin on record for Lincoln was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 43.3 points.
How many votes were cast in Lincoln relative to its population?
In 2024, 10,165 votes were recorded in Lincoln against a total population of 20,025 (50.8% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lincoln a presidential bellwether county?
Lincoln has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and New Mexico's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%).