Sebastian, Arkansas — Presidential Election Results
Sebastian, Arkansas has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 7.1 pts more Rep. than Arkansas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 23,483 | 58.5% | 19.7 pts (7,928 votes) | 40,159 | — | 14.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 27,303 | 61.8% | 24.5 pts (10,824 votes) | 44,211 | -4.4 pts | 14.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 28,637 | 66.3% | 34.6 pts (14,964 votes) | 43,212 | -10.6 pts | 15.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 29,169 | 67.3% | 37.1 pts (16,077 votes) | 43,362 | -2.7 pts | 13.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 29,127 | 65.3% | 37.7 pts (16,827 votes) | 44,637 | -2.6 pts | 12.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 31,198 | 66.2% | 35.4 pts (16,711 votes) | 47,140 | +4.0 pts | 8.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 30,719 | 67.6% | 37.5 pts (17,067 votes) | 45,452 | -1.9 pts | 7.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 115,578 | 34.7% of population |
| 2004 | 118,168 | 37.4% of population |
| 2008 | 123,762 | 34.9% of population |
| 2012 | 127,571 | 34.0% of population |
| 2016 | 127,385 | 35.0% of population |
| 2020 | 127,813 | 36.9% of population |
| 2024 | 130,035 | 35.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Sebastian shifted 18.2 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Sebastian has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arkansas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Sebastian voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Sebastian has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Sebastian?
Sebastian's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 20.3 points (7,928 votes) out of 40,159 total votes cast.
Has Sebastian ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Sebastian has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Sebastian?
The widest margin on record for Sebastian was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 40.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Sebastian relative to its population?
In 2024, 45,452 votes were recorded in Sebastian against a total population of 130,035 (35.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Sebastian a presidential bellwether county?
Sebastian has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).