Lincoln, Arkansas — Presidential Election Results
Lincoln, Arkansas has voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2008. In 2024, it was 19.6 pts more Rep. than Arkansas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 1,957 | 55.2% | 12.2 pts (431 votes) | 3,546 | — | 18.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 2,149 | 52.3% | 5.5 pts (228 votes) | 4,109 | -6.8 pts | 15.6 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 2,513 | 57.0% | 18.2 pts (803 votes) | 4,406 | -24.6 pts | 1.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 2,199 | 59.0% | 20.8 pts (774 votes) | 3,726 | -2.3 pts | 3.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 2,455 | 64.2% | 31.4 pts (1,203 votes) | 3,826 | -11.1 pts | 3.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,729 | 70.4% | 43.8 pts (1,697 votes) | 3,875 | -12.7 pts | 16.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,502 | 74.2% | 50.1 pts (1,689 votes) | 3,372 | -5.8 pts | 19.6 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 14,477 | 24.5% of population |
| 2004 | 14,466 | 28.4% of population |
| 2008 | 14,176 | 31.1% of population |
| 2012 | 14,180 | 26.3% of population |
| 2016 | 13,728 | 27.9% of population |
| 2020 | 12,890 | 30.1% of population |
| 2024 | 12,868 | 26.2% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lincoln shifted 63.3 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lincoln has matched the national popular winner in 2 of the last 7 presidential elections (29%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 5 of 7 (71%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arkansas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lincoln voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lincoln has voted Democratic in 2 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 5 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lincoln?
Lincoln's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when John Kerry (Democratic) won by 5.6 points (228 votes) out of 4,109 total votes cast.
Has Lincoln ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Lincoln changed which party won the county in: 2008, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lincoln?
The widest margin on record for Lincoln was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 51.0 points.
How many votes were cast in Lincoln relative to its population?
In 2024, 3,372 votes were recorded in Lincoln against a total population of 12,868 (26.2% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lincoln a presidential bellwether county?
Lincoln has matched the national popular winner in 2 of the last 7 presidential elections (29%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 5 of 7 (71%).