Lawrence, Arkansas — Presidential Election Results
Lawrence, Arkansas has voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2008. In 2024, it was 34.0 pts more Rep. than Arkansas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 3,255 | 53.9% | 10.4 pts (629 votes) | 6,040 | — | 16.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 3,544 | 53.6% | 9.0 pts (593 votes) | 6,615 | -1.6 pts | 19.1 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 3,357 | 57.6% | 20.9 pts (1,219 votes) | 5,830 | -31.3 pts | 1.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 3,536 | 63.8% | 31.6 pts (1,748 votes) | 5,540 | -10.6 pts | 8.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 4,064 | 71.5% | 49.3 pts (2,801 votes) | 5,685 | -19.7 pts | 24.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,569 | 78.0% | 59.6 pts (3,489 votes) | 5,857 | -9.2 pts | 33.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,608 | 81.0% | 64.0 pts (3,643 votes) | 5,692 | -3.6 pts | 34.0 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 17,672 | 34.2% of population |
| 2004 | 17,541 | 37.7% of population |
| 2008 | 17,460 | 33.4% of population |
| 2012 | 17,040 | 32.5% of population |
| 2016 | 16,639 | 34.2% of population |
| 2020 | 16,216 | 36.1% of population |
| 2024 | 16,305 | 34.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lawrence shifted 76.1 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lawrence has matched the national popular winner in 2 of the last 7 presidential elections (29%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 5 of 7 (71%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arkansas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lawrence voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lawrence has voted Democratic in 2 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 5 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lawrence?
Lawrence's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when John Kerry (Democratic) won by 9.1 points (593 votes) out of 6,615 total votes cast.
Has Lawrence ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Lawrence changed which party won the county in: 2008, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lawrence?
The widest margin on record for Lawrence was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 65.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Lawrence relative to its population?
In 2024, 5,692 votes were recorded in Lawrence against a total population of 16,305 (34.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lawrence a presidential bellwether county?
Lawrence has matched the national popular winner in 2 of the last 7 presidential elections (29%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 5 of 7 (71%).