Independence, Arkansas — Presidential Election Results
Independence, Arkansas has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 29.4 pts more Rep. than Arkansas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,145 | 53.0% | 8.6 pts (999 votes) | 11,594 | — | 3.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 7,430 | 57.1% | 15.3 pts (1,987 votes) | 13,011 | -6.6 pts | 5.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 8,255 | 67.1% | 37.1 pts (4,567 votes) | 12,299 | -22.8 pts | 17.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 8,728 | 70.4% | 43.9 pts (5,447 votes) | 12,397 | -7.1 pts | 21.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 9,936 | 73.0% | 51.8 pts (7,055 votes) | 13,614 | -9.7 pts | 26.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 11,250 | 77.5% | 58.2 pts (8,444 votes) | 14,512 | -5.0 pts | 31.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 11,023 | 78.7% | 59.5 pts (8,334 votes) | 14,011 | -0.7 pts | 29.4 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 34,333 | 33.8% of population |
| 2004 | 34,989 | 37.2% of population |
| 2008 | 35,859 | 34.3% of population |
| 2012 | 36,953 | 33.5% of population |
| 2016 | 37,117 | 36.7% of population |
| 2020 | 37,945 | 38.2% of population |
| 2024 | 38,345 | 36.5% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Independence shifted 51.9 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Independence has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arkansas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Independence voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Independence has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Independence?
Independence's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 8.8 points (999 votes) out of 11,594 total votes cast.
Has Independence ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Independence has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Independence?
The widest margin on record for Independence was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 60.8 points.
How many votes were cast in Independence relative to its population?
In 2024, 14,011 votes were recorded in Independence against a total population of 38,345 (36.5% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Independence a presidential bellwether county?
Independence has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).