Hot Spring, Arkansas — Presidential Election Results
Hot Spring, Arkansas has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2004. In 2024, it was 21.9 pts more Rep. than Arkansas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Arkansas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 5,527 | 50.3% | 4.4 pts (485 votes) | 10,981 | — | 10.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 5,962 | 49.4% | 0.5 pts (59 votes) | 12,068 | -5.1 pts | 9.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 7,209 | 60.3% | 24.4 pts (2,921 votes) | 11,955 | -24.9 pts | 5.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 7,097 | 63.0% | 29.0 pts (3,267 votes) | 11,260 | -4.5 pts | 5.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 8,172 | 68.4% | 42.1 pts (5,023 votes) | 11,944 | -14.5 pts | 15.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,202 | 73.3% | 48.7 pts (6,120 votes) | 12,557 | -5.5 pts | 21.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,226 | 75.1% | 52.2 pts (6,408 votes) | 12,283 | -3.4 pts | 21.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 30,480 | 36.0% of population |
| 2004 | 31,071 | 38.8% of population |
| 2008 | 32,737 | 36.5% of population |
| 2012 | 33,507 | 33.6% of population |
| 2016 | 33,438 | 35.7% of population |
| 2020 | 33,076 | 38.0% of population |
| 2024 | 33,313 | 36.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Hot Spring shifted 57.8 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Hot Spring has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Arkansas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Hot Spring voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Hot Spring has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Hot Spring?
Hot Spring's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 0.5 points (59 votes) out of 12,068 total votes cast.
Has Hot Spring ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Hot Spring changed which party won the county in: 2004, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Hot Spring?
The widest margin on record for Hot Spring was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 53.2 points.
How many votes were cast in Hot Spring relative to its population?
In 2024, 12,283 votes were recorded in Hot Spring against a total population of 33,313 (36.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Hot Spring a presidential bellwether county?
Hot Spring has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and Arkansas's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).