Guadalupe, Texas — Presidential Election Results
Guadalupe, Texas has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 15.9 pts more Rep. than Texas overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Texas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 21,499 | 70.3% | 43.1 pts (13,188 votes) | 30,567 | — | 22.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 28,208 | 72.8% | 46.2 pts (17,918 votes) | 38,752 | -2.3 pts | 23.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 30,869 | 65.0% | 31.0 pts (14,713 votes) | 47,461 | +15.3 pts | 19.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 33,117 | 66.9% | 35.1 pts (17,373 votes) | 49,514 | -4.3 pts | 19.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 36,632 | 63.4% | 31.5 pts (18,241 votes) | 57,822 | +2.4 pts | 23.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 47,553 | 61.3% | 24.2 pts (18,748 votes) | 77,619 | +8.6 pts | 18.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 54,691 | 64.2% | 29.5 pts (25,118 votes) | 85,136 | -5.3 pts | 15.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 89,841 | 34.0% of population |
| 2004 | 101,495 | 38.2% of population |
| 2008 | 123,398 | 38.5% of population |
| 2012 | 139,641 | 35.5% of population |
| 2016 | 154,492 | 37.4% of population |
| 2020 | 173,708 | 44.7% of population |
| 2024 | 195,166 | 43.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Guadalupe shifted 14.4 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Guadalupe has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Texas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Texas Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Guadalupe voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Guadalupe has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Guadalupe?
Guadalupe's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 24.6 points (18,748 votes) out of 77,619 total votes cast.
Has Guadalupe ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Guadalupe has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Guadalupe?
The widest margin on record for Guadalupe was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 46.5 points.
How many votes were cast in Guadalupe relative to its population?
In 2024, 85,136 votes were recorded in Guadalupe against a total population of 195,166 (43.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Guadalupe a presidential bellwether county?
Guadalupe has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Texas's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).