Lawrence, Missouri — Presidential Election Results
Lawrence, Missouri has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 45.7 pts more Rep. than Missouri overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Missouri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 8,305 | 64.4% | 31.5 pts (4,070 votes) | 12,903 | — | 29.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 11,194 | 70.8% | 42.3 pts (6,688 votes) | 15,806 | -10.1 pts | 35.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 11,263 | 67.7% | 37.1 pts (6,166 votes) | 16,637 | +4.9 pts | 37.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 11,421 | 72.5% | 47.0 pts (7,404 votes) | 15,755 | -10.3 pts | 38.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 13,089 | 78.3% | 61.0 pts (10,188 votes) | 16,715 | -15.8 pts | 44.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 14,426 | 80.6% | 62.6 pts (11,212 votes) | 17,905 | +0.2 pts | 47.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 15,001 | 81.4% | 63.8 pts (11,753 votes) | 18,427 | -0.8 pts | 45.7 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 35,352 | 36.5% of population |
| 2004 | 36,798 | 43.0% of population |
| 2008 | 38,508 | 43.2% of population |
| 2012 | 38,382 | 41.0% of population |
| 2016 | 38,164 | 43.8% of population |
| 2020 | 37,998 | 47.1% of population |
| 2024 | 39,151 | 47.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lawrence shifted 31.9 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lawrence has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Missouri's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Missouri Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lawrence voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lawrence has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lawrence?
Lawrence's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 32.5 points (4,070 votes) out of 12,903 total votes cast.
Has Lawrence ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Lawrence has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lawrence?
The widest margin on record for Lawrence was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 64.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Lawrence relative to its population?
In 2024, 18,427 votes were recorded in Lawrence against a total population of 39,151 (47.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lawrence a presidential bellwether county?
Lawrence has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Missouri's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).