Adair, Missouri — Presidential Election Results
Adair, Missouri has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 15.3 pts more Rep. than Missouri overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Missouri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,050 | 57.3% | 18.5 pts (1,949 votes) | 10,552 | — | 15.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,367 | 55.8% | 12.5 pts (1,429 votes) | 11,404 | +6.6 pts | 5.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 5,891 | 49.6% | 1.3 pts (156 votes) | 11,871 | +11.3 pts | 1.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 5,651 | 55.8% | 14.1 pts (1,432 votes) | 10,126 | -13.2 pts | 5.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 6,030 | 59.0% | 24.7 pts (2,530 votes) | 10,226 | -12.0 pts | 6.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 6,413 | 62.0% | 26.2 pts (2,703 votes) | 10,336 | -0.2 pts | 11.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 6,771 | 66.1% | 33.6 pts (3,437 votes) | 10,239 | -7.3 pts | 15.3 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 24,956 | 42.3% of population |
| 2004 | 24,988 | 45.6% of population |
| 2008 | 25,399 | 46.7% of population |
| 2012 | 25,675 | 39.4% of population |
| 2016 | 25,244 | 40.5% of population |
| 2020 | 25,272 | 40.9% of population |
| 2024 | 25,660 | 39.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Adair shifted 14.8 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Adair has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Missouri's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Missouri Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Adair voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Adair has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Adair?
Adair's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 1.3 points (156 votes) out of 11,871 total votes cast.
Has Adair ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Adair has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Adair?
The widest margin on record for Adair was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 34.0 points.
How many votes were cast in Adair relative to its population?
In 2024, 10,239 votes were recorded in Adair against a total population of 25,660 (39.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Adair a presidential bellwether county?
Adair has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Missouri's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).