Carlton, Minnesota — Presidential Election Results
Carlton, Minnesota has voted Democratic in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 6.9 pts more Rep. than Minnesota overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Minnesota |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 8,620 | 57.2% | 20.2 pts (3,042 votes) | 15,081 | — | 18.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 11,462 | 62.5% | 26.3 pts (4,820 votes) | 18,334 | +5.2 pts | 23.1 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 11,501 | 62.3% | 26.8 pts (4,952 votes) | 18,449 | +0.8 pts | 17.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 11,389 | 61.8% | 26.1 pts (4,803 votes) | 18,436 | -0.7 pts | 18.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 8,460 | 46.5% | 1.6 pts (300 votes) | 18,211 | -24.9 pts | 0.1 pts more Dem. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 10,098 | 49.6% | 1.5 pts (307 votes) | 20,369 | -0.3 pts | 5.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 10,435 | 50.1% | 2.5 pts (530 votes) | 20,815 | -4.1 pts | 6.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 31,784 | 47.4% of population |
| 2004 | 33,950 | 54.0% of population |
| 2008 | 34,986 | 52.7% of population |
| 2012 | 35,272 | 52.3% of population |
| 2016 | 35,555 | 51.2% of population |
| 2020 | 36,187 | 56.3% of population |
| 2024 | 36,745 | 56.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Carlton shifted 24.0 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Carlton has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Minnesota's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Minnesota Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Carlton voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Carlton has voted Democratic in 6 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 1 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Carlton?
Carlton's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Joseph R Biden Jr (Democratic) won by 1.5 points (307 votes) out of 20,369 total votes cast.
Has Carlton ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Carlton changed which party won the county in: 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Carlton?
The widest margin on record for Carlton was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 27.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Carlton relative to its population?
In 2024, 20,815 votes were recorded in Carlton against a total population of 36,745 (56.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Carlton a presidential bellwether county?
Carlton has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Minnesota's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).