Seminole, Florida — Presidential Election Results
Seminole, Florida has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 9.6 pts more Dem. than Florida overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Florida |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 75,677 | 55.0% | 12.0 pts (16,503 votes) | 137,634 | — | 12.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 108,172 | 58.1% | 16.8 pts (31,201 votes) | 186,195 | -4.6 pts | 11.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 105,070 | 51.0% | 2.8 pts (5,735 votes) | 205,895 | +14.0 pts | 5.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 109,943 | 52.7% | 6.5 pts (13,498 votes) | 208,620 | -3.7 pts | 7.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 109,443 | 48.7% | 1.6 pts (3,529 votes) | 224,896 | +4.9 pts | 0.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 132,528 | 50.8% | 2.8 pts (7,287 votes) | 260,815 | +4.5 pts | 6.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 129,735 | 51.1% | 3.6 pts (9,018 votes) | 253,727 | -6.4 pts | 9.6 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 367,378 | 37.5% of population |
| 2004 | 395,230 | 47.1% of population |
| 2008 | 416,564 | 49.4% of population |
| 2012 | 430,537 | 48.5% of population |
| 2016 | 455,945 | 49.3% of population |
| 2020 | 471,472 | 55.3% of population |
| 2024 | 494,605 | 51.3% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Seminole shifted 8.6 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Seminole has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Florida Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Seminole voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Seminole has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Seminole?
Seminole's closest recorded margin was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 1.6 points (3,529 votes) out of 224,896 total votes cast.
Has Seminole ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Seminole changed which party won the county in: 2020, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Seminole?
The widest margin on record for Seminole was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 16.9 points.
How many votes were cast in Seminole relative to its population?
In 2024, 253,727 votes were recorded in Seminole against a total population of 494,605 (51.3% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Seminole a presidential bellwether county?
Seminole has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).