Bay, Florida — Presidential Election Results
Bay, Florida has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 34.7 pts more Rep. than Florida overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Florida |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 38,637 | 65.7% | 33.6 pts (19,787 votes) | 58,805 | — | 34.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 53,404 | 71.2% | 43.1 pts (32,336 votes) | 75,024 | -9.0 pts | 38.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 56,683 | 69.9% | 40.7 pts (33,030 votes) | 81,127 | +2.3 pts | 44.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 56,876 | 71.2% | 43.6 pts (34,825 votes) | 79,861 | -3.0 pts | 45.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 62,194 | 71.1% | 46.2 pts (40,397 votes) | 87,453 | -4.0 pts | 46.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 66,097 | 71.1% | 43.5 pts (40,483 votes) | 93,024 | +4.0 pts | 40.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 71,497 | 73.1% | 47.3 pts (46,296 votes) | 97,777 | -3.7 pts | 34.7 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 148,393 | 39.6% of population |
| 2004 | 158,804 | 47.2% of population |
| 2008 | 166,267 | 48.8% of population |
| 2012 | 171,757 | 46.5% of population |
| 2016 | 183,634 | 47.6% of population |
| 2020 | 174,543 | 53.3% of population |
| 2024 | 199,718 | 49.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Bay shifted 13.5 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Bay has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Florida Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Bay voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Bay has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Bay?
Bay's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 34.4 points (19,787 votes) out of 58,805 total votes cast.
Has Bay ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Bay has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Bay?
The widest margin on record for Bay was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 48.1 points.
How many votes were cast in Bay relative to its population?
In 2024, 97,777 votes were recorded in Bay against a total population of 199,718 (49.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Bay a presidential bellwether county?
Bay has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).