Duval, Florida — Presidential Election Results
Duval, Florida has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 11.7 pts more Dem. than Florida overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Florida |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 152,098 | 57.5% | 16.7 pts (44,234 votes) | 264,636 | — | 17.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 220,190 | 57.8% | 16.2 pts (61,580 votes) | 381,061 | +0.8 pts | 11.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 210,537 | 50.6% | 1.9 pts (7,919 votes) | 415,761 | +14.3 pts | 4.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 211,615 | 51.4% | 3.6 pts (14,878 votes) | 411,848 | -1.7 pts | 4.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 211,672 | 48.9% | 1.4 pts (5,968 votes) | 432,695 | +2.2 pts | 0.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 252,556 | 51.2% | 3.8 pts (18,794 votes) | 492,820 | +5.3 pts | 7.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 236,285 | 50.1% | 1.5 pts (6,920 votes) | 471,282 | -5.4 pts | 11.7 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 779,800 | 33.9% of population |
| 2004 | 820,070 | 46.5% of population |
| 2008 | 855,437 | 48.6% of population |
| 2012 | 880,108 | 46.8% of population |
| 2016 | 926,010 | 46.7% of population |
| 2020 | 997,826 | 49.4% of population |
| 2024 | 1,055,159 | 44.7% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Duval shifted 15.5 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Duval has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Florida Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Duval voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Duval has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Duval?
Duval's closest recorded margin was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 1.4 points (5,968 votes) out of 432,695 total votes cast.
Has Duval ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Duval changed which party won the county in: 2020, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Duval?
The widest margin on record for Duval was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 17.0 points.
How many votes were cast in Duval relative to its population?
In 2024, 471,282 votes were recorded in Duval against a total population of 1,055,159 (44.7% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Duval a presidential bellwether county?
Duval has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Florida's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).