Dauphin, Pennsylvania — Presidential Election Results
Dauphin, Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Democratic in 2008. In 2024, it was 7.7 pts more Dem. than Pennsylvania overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 53,631 | 53.3% | 9.2 pts (9,241 votes) | 100,658 | — | 13.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 65,296 | 53.9% | 8.2 pts (9,997 votes) | 121,208 | +1.1 pts | 10.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 69,975 | 54.0% | 9.1 pts (11,737 votes) | 129,526 | +17.4 pts | 1.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 64,965 | 52.4% | 6.1 pts (7,515 votes) | 124,008 | -3.0 pts | 0.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 64,706 | 49.4% | 2.9 pts (3,843 votes) | 130,872 | -3.1 pts | 3.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 78,983 | 53.6% | 8.5 pts (12,575 votes) | 147,368 | +5.6 pts | 7.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Kamala D Harris | Democratic | 78,327 | 52.4% | 5.9 pts (8,853 votes) | 149,526 | -2.7 pts | 7.7 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 251,911 | 40.0% of population |
| 2004 | 256,194 | 47.3% of population |
| 2008 | 265,395 | 48.8% of population |
| 2012 | 270,005 | 45.9% of population |
| 2016 | 274,196 | 47.7% of population |
| 2020 | 286,717 | 51.4% of population |
| 2024 | 293,029 | 51.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Dauphin shifted 15.4 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Dauphin has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Pennsylvania's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Pennsylvania Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Dauphin voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Dauphin has voted Democratic in 5 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 2 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Dauphin?
Dauphin's closest recorded margin was in 2016, when Hillary Clinton (Democratic) won by 3.1 points (3,843 votes) out of 130,872 total votes cast.
Has Dauphin ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Dauphin changed which party won the county in: 2008, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Dauphin?
The widest margin on record for Dauphin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 9.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Dauphin relative to its population?
In 2024, 149,526 votes were recorded in Dauphin against a total population of 293,029 (51.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Dauphin a presidential bellwether county?
Dauphin has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Pennsylvania's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).