Cumberland, Pennsylvania — Presidential Election Results
Cumberland, Pennsylvania has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 7.8 pts more Rep. than Pennsylvania overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 54,802 | 62.2% | 27.0 pts (23,749 votes) | 88,062 | — | 32.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 67,648 | 63.8% | 28.0 pts (29,720 votes) | 106,082 | -0.5 pts | 30.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 63,739 | 56.3% | 13.6 pts (15,433 votes) | 113,298 | +14.4 pts | 24.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 64,809 | 58.5% | 18.4 pts (20,442 votes) | 110,814 | -4.9 pts | 24.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 69,076 | 56.8% | 18.1 pts (21,991 votes) | 121,617 | -0.2 pts | 18.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 77,212 | 54.5% | 10.6 pts (14,967 votes) | 141,595 | +8.2 pts | 11.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 80,267 | 54.1% | 9.4 pts (14,012 votes) | 148,396 | +1.2 pts | 7.8 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 213,906 | 41.2% of population |
| 2004 | 221,225 | 48.0% of population |
| 2008 | 231,357 | 49.0% of population |
| 2012 | 239,244 | 46.3% of population |
| 2016 | 247,369 | 49.2% of population |
| 2020 | 260,254 | 54.4% of population |
| 2024 | 275,516 | 53.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Cumberland shifted 18.1 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Cumberland has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Pennsylvania's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Pennsylvania Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Cumberland voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Cumberland has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Cumberland?
Cumberland's closest recorded margin was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 9.6 points (14,012 votes) out of 148,396 total votes cast.
Has Cumberland ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Cumberland has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Cumberland?
The widest margin on record for Cumberland was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 28.2 points.
How many votes were cast in Cumberland relative to its population?
In 2024, 148,396 votes were recorded in Cumberland against a total population of 275,516 (53.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Cumberland a presidential bellwether county?
Cumberland has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Pennsylvania's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%).