Ontario, New York — Presidential Election Results
Ontario, New York has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2016. In 2024, it was 13.9 pts more Rep. than New York overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. New York |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 23,885 | 52.0% | 9.0 pts (4,124 votes) | 45,948 | — | 35.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 26,611 | 53.1% | 12.2 pts (6,108 votes) | 50,102 | -3.5 pts | 32.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 25,171 | 49.3% | 0.1 pts (68 votes) | 51,020 | +12.8 pts | 27.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 22,065 | 46.1% | 2.4 pts (1,146 votes) | 47,853 | +2.8 pts | 29.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 26,029 | 49.8% | 7.3 pts (3,796 votes) | 52,258 | -10.5 pts | 31.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 29,039 | 48.3% | 0.0 pts (14 votes) | 60,085 | +7.8 pts | 23.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 30,221 | 50.4% | 1.2 pts (701 votes) | 59,987 | -1.1 pts | 13.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 100,106 | 45.9% of population |
| 2004 | 103,385 | 48.5% of population |
| 2008 | 106,302 | 48.0% of population |
| 2012 | 108,611 | 44.1% of population |
| 2016 | 109,229 | 47.8% of population |
| 2020 | 112,350 | 53.5% of population |
| 2024 | 113,012 | 53.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Ontario shifted 8.3 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Ontario has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and New York's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other New York Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Ontario voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Ontario has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Ontario?
Ontario's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 0.0 points (14 votes) out of 60,085 total votes cast.
Has Ontario ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Ontario changed which party won the county in: 2012, 2016, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Ontario?
The widest margin on record for Ontario was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 13.0 points.
How many votes were cast in Ontario relative to its population?
In 2024, 59,987 votes were recorded in Ontario against a total population of 113,012 (53.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Ontario a presidential bellwether county?
Ontario has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and New York's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%).