Shelby, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Shelby, Kentucky has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 4.3 pts more Rep. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 8,068 | 63.3% | 28.5 pts (3,633 votes) | 12,738 | — | 13.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 10,909 | 66.9% | 34.5 pts (5,632 votes) | 16,313 | -5.7 pts | 14.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 11,451 | 61.8% | 24.7 pts (4,580 votes) | 18,540 | +9.8 pts | 8.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 11,790 | 63.2% | 27.6 pts (5,156 votes) | 18,663 | -3.0 pts | 4.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 13,196 | 64.1% | 33.6 pts (6,920 votes) | 20,580 | -7.6 pts | 4.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 15,054 | 63.9% | 29.6 pts (6,978 votes) | 23,542 | +5.4 pts | 3.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 16,356 | 66.4% | 34.7 pts (8,534 votes) | 24,620 | -5.1 pts | 4.3 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 33,574 | 37.9% of population |
| 2004 | 36,682 | 44.5% of population |
| 2008 | 41,044 | 45.2% of population |
| 2012 | 43,656 | 42.8% of population |
| 2016 | 46,548 | 44.2% of population |
| 2020 | 48,255 | 48.8% of population |
| 2024 | 50,124 | 49.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Shelby shifted 6.2 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Shelby has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Shelby voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Shelby has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Shelby?
Shelby's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 25.0 points (4,580 votes) out of 18,540 total votes cast.
Has Shelby ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Shelby has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Shelby?
The widest margin on record for Shelby was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 35.5 points.
How many votes were cast in Shelby relative to its population?
In 2024, 24,620 votes were recorded in Shelby against a total population of 50,124 (49.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Shelby a presidential bellwether county?
Shelby has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).