Harlan, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Harlan, Kentucky has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2004. In 2024, it was 45.7 pts more Rep. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 5,365 | 50.9% | 3.7 pts (385 votes) | 10,535 | — | 19.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,659 | 60.2% | 21.0 pts (2,327 votes) | 11,070 | -24.9 pts | 1.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 7,165 | 72.3% | 46.2 pts (4,579 votes) | 9,914 | -25.8 pts | 30.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 8,652 | 81.2% | 64.0 pts (6,822 votes) | 10,657 | -18.1 pts | 42.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 9,129 | 84.9% | 72.1 pts (7,757 votes) | 10,757 | -8.8 pts | 42.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,367 | 85.4% | 71.8 pts (7,873 votes) | 10,971 | +1.4 pts | 46.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,109 | 87.7% | 76.1 pts (7,910 votes) | 10,388 | -4.2 pts | 45.7 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 32,935 | 32.0% of population |
| 2004 | 30,614 | 36.2% of population |
| 2008 | 29,591 | 33.5% of population |
| 2012 | 28,681 | 37.2% of population |
| 2016 | 26,996 | 39.8% of population |
| 2020 | 26,758 | 41.0% of population |
| 2024 | 25,052 | 41.5% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Harlan shifted 80.5 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Harlan has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Harlan voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Harlan has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Harlan?
Harlan's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when Al Gore (Democratic) won by 3.7 points (385 votes) out of 10,535 total votes cast.
Has Harlan ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Harlan changed which party won the county in: 2004, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Harlan?
The widest margin on record for Harlan was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 76.7 points.
How many votes were cast in Harlan relative to its population?
In 2024, 10,388 votes were recorded in Harlan against a total population of 25,052 (41.5% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Harlan a presidential bellwether county?
Harlan has matched the national popular winner in 3 of the last 7 presidential elections (43%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).