Hardin, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Hardin, Kentucky has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 1.2 pts more Dem. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 18,964 | 61.8% | 25.6 pts (7,869 votes) | 30,690 | — | 10.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 24,627 | 67.6% | 36.0 pts (13,120 votes) | 36,441 | -10.1 pts | 16.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 23,896 | 59.8% | 20.6 pts (8,246 votes) | 39,990 | +15.5 pts | 4.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 23,357 | 59.6% | 20.8 pts (8,143 votes) | 39,218 | -0.3 pts | 2.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 26,971 | 62.5% | 30.2 pts (13,027 votes) | 43,156 | -10.7 pts | 0.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 29,832 | 61.0% | 24.0 pts (11,731 votes) | 48,941 | +7.4 pts | 1.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 30,672 | 63.8% | 29.3 pts (14,100 votes) | 48,082 | -5.4 pts | 1.2 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 92,919 | 33.0% of population |
| 2004 | 95,015 | 38.4% of population |
| 2008 | 99,926 | 40.0% of population |
| 2012 | 108,198 | 36.2% of population |
| 2016 | 106,964 | 40.3% of population |
| 2020 | 110,840 | 44.2% of population |
| 2024 | 112,826 | 42.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Hardin shifted 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Hardin has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Hardin voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Hardin has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Hardin?
Hardin's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 20.9 points (8,246 votes) out of 39,990 total votes cast.
Has Hardin ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Hardin has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Hardin?
The widest margin on record for Hardin was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 36.3 points.
How many votes were cast in Hardin relative to its population?
In 2024, 48,082 votes were recorded in Hardin against a total population of 112,826 (42.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Hardin a presidential bellwether county?
Hardin has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).