Estill, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Estill, Kentucky has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 33.1 pts more Rep. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,033 | 64.4% | 30.6 pts (1,442 votes) | 4,710 | — | 15.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,633 | 65.2% | 31.0 pts (1,726 votes) | 5,575 | +0.0 pts | 11.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 3,685 | 69.3% | 40.1 pts (2,130 votes) | 5,314 | -9.5 pts | 24.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 3,749 | 72.3% | 46.2 pts (2,393 votes) | 5,184 | -6.2 pts | 23.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 4,236 | 76.4% | 56.4 pts (3,128 votes) | 5,545 | -11.7 pts | 27.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 5,100 | 78.0% | 57.3 pts (3,745 votes) | 6,538 | +0.5 pts | 31.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 5,091 | 80.9% | 63.2 pts (3,977 votes) | 6,290 | -6.1 pts | 33.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 15,307 | 30.8% of population |
| 2004 | 14,913 | 37.4% of population |
| 2008 | 14,752 | 36.0% of population |
| 2012 | 14,503 | 35.7% of population |
| 2016 | 14,315 | 38.7% of population |
| 2020 | 14,160 | 46.2% of population |
| 2024 | 14,002 | 44.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Estill shifted 32.9 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Estill has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Estill voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Estill has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Estill?
Estill's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 31.2 points (1,726 votes) out of 5,575 total votes cast.
Has Estill ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Estill has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Estill?
The widest margin on record for Estill was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 64.1 points.
How many votes were cast in Estill relative to its population?
In 2024, 6,290 votes were recorded in Estill against a total population of 14,002 (44.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Estill a presidential bellwether county?
Estill has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).