Carlisle, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Carlisle, Kentucky has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 37.5 pts more Rep. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 1,405 | 54.2% | 9.9 pts (256 votes) | 2,593 | — | 5.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 1,734 | 60.9% | 22.2 pts (632 votes) | 2,845 | -12.3 pts | 2.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 1,699 | 64.9% | 31.3 pts (820 votes) | 2,617 | -9.5 pts | 15.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 1,835 | 70.1% | 41.4 pts (1,085 votes) | 2,619 | -10.2 pts | 18.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 2,094 | 80.5% | 63.9 pts (1,662 votes) | 2,601 | -23.8 pts | 34.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,159 | 81.8% | 64.3 pts (1,696 votes) | 2,638 | +1.1 pts | 38.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,182 | 83.6% | 68.0 pts (1,774 votes) | 2,610 | -3.8 pts | 37.5 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 5,336 | 48.6% of population |
| 2004 | 5,261 | 54.1% of population |
| 2008 | 5,093 | 51.4% of population |
| 2012 | 5,027 | 52.1% of population |
| 2016 | 4,783 | 54.4% of population |
| 2020 | 4,805 | 54.9% of population |
| 2024 | 4,777 | 54.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Carlisle shifted 58.5 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Carlisle has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Carlisle voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Carlisle has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Carlisle?
Carlisle's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 10.0 points (256 votes) out of 2,593 total votes cast.
Has Carlisle ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Carlisle has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Carlisle?
The widest margin on record for Carlisle was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 68.5 points.
How many votes were cast in Carlisle relative to its population?
In 2024, 2,610 votes were recorded in Carlisle against a total population of 4,777 (54.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Carlisle a presidential bellwether county?
Carlisle has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).