Caldwell, Kentucky — Presidential Election Results
Caldwell, Kentucky has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 27.9 pts more Rep. than Kentucky overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Kentucky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,161 | 57.7% | 17.1 pts (938 votes) | 5,482 | — | 2.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 4,066 | 64.0% | 28.7 pts (1,821 votes) | 6,349 | -11.4 pts | 8.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 3,866 | 62.4% | 26.7 pts (1,654 votes) | 6,199 | +1.6 pts | 10.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 3,904 | 66.6% | 35.0 pts (2,052 votes) | 5,860 | -8.4 pts | 12.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 4,507 | 75.4% | 54.3 pts (3,247 votes) | 5,975 | -20.7 pts | 25.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,906 | 76.3% | 54.0 pts (3,473 votes) | 6,428 | +1.5 pts | 28.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,860 | 78.5% | 58.2 pts (3,604 votes) | 6,188 | -4.1 pts | 27.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 13,026 | 42.1% of population |
| 2004 | 12,774 | 49.7% of population |
| 2008 | 12,985 | 47.7% of population |
| 2012 | 12,992 | 45.1% of population |
| 2016 | 12,634 | 47.3% of population |
| 2020 | 12,636 | 50.9% of population |
| 2024 | 12,611 | 49.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Caldwell shifted 41.5 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Caldwell has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Kentucky Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Caldwell voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Caldwell has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Caldwell?
Caldwell's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 17.4 points (938 votes) out of 5,482 total votes cast.
Has Caldwell ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Caldwell has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Caldwell?
The widest margin on record for Caldwell was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 58.9 points.
How many votes were cast in Caldwell relative to its population?
In 2024, 6,188 votes were recorded in Caldwell against a total population of 12,611 (49.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Caldwell a presidential bellwether county?
Caldwell has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Kentucky's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).