Rosebud, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Rosebud, Montana has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2012. In 2024, it was 17.9 pts more Rep. than Montana overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 1,826 | 53.3% | 12.6 pts (432 votes) | 3,423 | — | 13.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 1,982 | 55.3% | 12.9 pts (462 votes) | 3,585 | +0.2 pts | 7.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 1,919 | 50.4% | 4.0 pts (151 votes) | 3,810 | +17.3 pts | 6.6 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 2,004 | 56.9% | 16.5 pts (582 votes) | 3,523 | -21.1 pts | 2.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 2,253 | 65.2% | 36.7 pts (1,266 votes) | 3,453 | -22.1 pts | 16.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,486 | 65.9% | 34.1 pts (1,287 votes) | 3,773 | +4.1 pts | 18.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 2,466 | 66.8% | 37.1 pts (1,371 votes) | 3,693 | -3.6 pts | 17.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 9,399 | 36.4% of population |
| 2004 | 9,136 | 39.2% of population |
| 2008 | 9,095 | 41.9% of population |
| 2012 | 9,346 | 37.7% of population |
| 2016 | 9,232 | 37.4% of population |
| 2020 | 8,306 | 45.4% of population |
| 2024 | 8,194 | 45.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Rosebud shifted 25.1 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Rosebud has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Rosebud voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Rosebud has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Rosebud?
Rosebud's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 4.1 points (151 votes) out of 3,810 total votes cast.
Has Rosebud ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Rosebud changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2012, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Rosebud?
The widest margin on record for Rosebud was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 39.1 points.
How many votes were cast in Rosebud relative to its population?
In 2024, 3,693 votes were recorded in Rosebud against a total population of 8,194 (45.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Rosebud a presidential bellwether county?
Rosebud has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).