Cascade, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Cascade, Montana has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2012. In 2024, it was 2.5 pts more Rep. than Montana overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 18,164 | 54.5% | 15.1 pts (5,027 votes) | 33,317 | — | 11.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 19,028 | 56.9% | 15.9 pts (5,327 votes) | 33,459 | -0.2 pts | 4.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 17,664 | 49.9% | 2.3 pts (807 votes) | 35,396 | +18.6 pts | 4.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 18,345 | 53.1% | 9.0 pts (3,113 votes) | 34,564 | -11.6 pts | 4.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 19,632 | 56.8% | 21.6 pts (7,457 votes) | 34,571 | -14.2 pts | 1.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 23,315 | 58.5% | 19.7 pts (7,859 votes) | 39,885 | +3.2 pts | 3.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 22,419 | 59.7% | 22.3 pts (8,398 votes) | 37,583 | -2.8 pts | 2.5 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 80,318 | 41.5% of population |
| 2004 | 80,198 | 41.7% of population |
| 2008 | 80,529 | 44.0% of population |
| 2012 | 81,622 | 42.3% of population |
| 2016 | 81,562 | 42.4% of population |
| 2020 | 84,411 | 47.3% of population |
| 2024 | 84,523 | 44.5% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Cascade shifted 7.0 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Cascade has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Cascade voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Cascade has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Cascade?
Cascade's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 2.3 points (807 votes) out of 35,396 total votes cast.
Has Cascade ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Cascade changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2012, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Cascade?
The widest margin on record for Cascade was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 23.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Cascade relative to its population?
In 2024, 37,583 votes were recorded in Cascade against a total population of 84,523 (44.5% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Cascade a presidential bellwether county?
Cascade has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).