Missoula, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Missoula, Montana has voted Democratic in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Democratic in 2004. In 2024, it was 42.8 pts more Dem. than Montana overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 21,474 | 46.1% | 9.1 pts (4,233 votes) | 46,576 | — | 16.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 26,983 | 51.4% | 5.7 pts (2,994 votes) | 52,452 | +16.8 pts | 26.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 36,531 | 61.8% | 26.7 pts (15,788 votes) | 59,104 | +21.7 pts | 30.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 32,824 | 57.4% | 17.8 pts (10,172 votes) | 57,192 | -9.2 pts | 32.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 31,543 | 53.3% | 15.7 pts (9,293 votes) | 59,203 | -1.1 pts | 39.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 43,357 | 60.6% | 23.8 pts (17,010 votes) | 71,495 | +7.1 pts | 41.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Kamala D Harris | Democratic | 42,903 | 59.0% | 21.4 pts (15,597 votes) | 72,773 | -2.2 pts | 42.8 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 96,178 | 48.4% of population |
| 2004 | 100,934 | 52.0% of population |
| 2008 | 107,747 | 54.9% of population |
| 2012 | 111,042 | 51.5% of population |
| 2016 | 116,349 | 50.9% of population |
| 2020 | 118,353 | 60.4% of population |
| 2024 | 122,546 | 59.4% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Missoula shifted 33.1 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Missoula has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Missoula voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Missoula has voted Democratic in 6 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 1 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Missoula?
Missoula's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when John Kerry (Democratic) won by 5.9 points (2,994 votes) out of 52,452 total votes cast.
Has Missoula ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Missoula changed which party won the county in: 2004, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Missoula?
The widest margin on record for Missoula was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 27.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Missoula relative to its population?
In 2024, 72,773 votes were recorded in Missoula against a total population of 122,546 (59.4% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Missoula a presidential bellwether county?
Missoula has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 1 of 7 (14%).