Lake, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Lake, Montana has voted Republican in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2012.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 6,441 | 56.3% | 22.3 pts (2,557 votes) | 11,448 | — | 2.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 7,245 | 57.6% | 18.2 pts (2,285 votes) | 12,576 | +6.0 pts | 2.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 6,766 | 48.6% | 1.9 pts (268 votes) | 13,919 | +20.7 pts | 4.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 7,135 | 53.6% | 10.0 pts (1,330 votes) | 13,304 | -12.3 pts | 3.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 7,530 | 57.1% | 20.9 pts (2,754 votes) | 13,181 | -12.1 pts | 0.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,322 | 56.1% | 14.5 pts (2,406 votes) | 16,626 | +7.6 pts | 2.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,880 | 58.4% | 19.9 pts (3,370 votes) | 16,910 | -5.7 pts | 0.0 pts more Dem. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 26,588 | 43.1% of population |
| 2004 | 27,634 | 45.5% of population |
| 2008 | 28,515 | 48.8% of population |
| 2012 | 29,012 | 45.9% of population |
| 2016 | 29,709 | 44.4% of population |
| 2020 | 31,247 | 53.2% of population |
| 2024 | 33,403 | 50.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lake shifted 4.2 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lake has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lake voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lake has voted Democratic in 1 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 6 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lake?
Lake's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 2.0 points (268 votes) out of 13,919 total votes cast.
Has Lake ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Lake changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2012, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lake?
The widest margin on record for Lake was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 24.8 points.
How many votes were cast in Lake relative to its population?
In 2024, 16,910 votes were recorded in Lake against a total population of 33,403 (50.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lake a presidential bellwether county?
Lake has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).