Jefferson, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Jefferson, Montana has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 17.0 pts more Rep. than Montana overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,308 | 64.1% | 34.8 pts (1,795 votes) | 5,163 | — | 9.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,844 | 65.5% | 33.5 pts (1,963 votes) | 5,868 | +2.9 pts | 13.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 3,538 | 55.8% | 15.1 pts (956 votes) | 6,341 | +18.7 pts | 13.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 4,055 | 62.2% | 27.3 pts (1,783 votes) | 6,520 | -12.6 pts | 14.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 4,177 | 62.2% | 32.5 pts (2,179 votes) | 6,714 | -7.1 pts | 13.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 5,345 | 65.6% | 33.4 pts (2,720 votes) | 8,151 | +1.2 pts | 17.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 5,544 | 66.9% | 36.5 pts (3,028 votes) | 8,291 | -3.4 pts | 17.0 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 10,052 | 51.4% of population |
| 2004 | 10,511 | 55.8% of population |
| 2008 | 11,203 | 56.6% of population |
| 2012 | 11,318 | 57.6% of population |
| 2016 | 11,779 | 57.0% of population |
| 2020 | 12,142 | 67.1% of population |
| 2024 | 13,304 | 62.3% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Jefferson shifted 0.3 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Jefferson has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Jefferson voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Jefferson has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Jefferson?
Jefferson's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 15.6 points (956 votes) out of 6,341 total votes cast.
Has Jefferson ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Jefferson has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Jefferson?
The widest margin on record for Jefferson was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 37.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Jefferson relative to its population?
In 2024, 8,291 votes were recorded in Jefferson against a total population of 13,304 (62.3% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Jefferson a presidential bellwether county?
Jefferson has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).