Flathead, Montana — Presidential Election Results
Flathead, Montana has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 14.1 pts more Rep. than Montana overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Montana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 22,519 | 66.5% | 41.9 pts (14,190 votes) | 33,839 | — | 18.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 26,019 | 67.3% | 37.3 pts (14,432 votes) | 38,678 | +7.6 pts | 17.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 25,559 | 58.4% | 21.5 pts (9,421 votes) | 43,744 | +15.8 pts | 20.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 28,309 | 65.1% | 33.2 pts (14,417 votes) | 43,476 | -11.6 pts | 20.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 30,240 | 64.9% | 36.4 pts (16,947 votes) | 46,571 | -4.8 pts | 16.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 38,321 | 63.9% | 30.1 pts (18,047 votes) | 59,936 | +8.1 pts | 14.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 41,390 | 65.6% | 33.8 pts (21,328 votes) | 63,140 | -3.9 pts | 14.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 74,774 | 45.3% of population |
| 2004 | 81,247 | 47.6% of population |
| 2008 | 90,260 | 48.5% of population |
| 2012 | 91,597 | 47.5% of population |
| 2016 | 97,742 | 47.6% of population |
| 2020 | 104,881 | 57.1% of population |
| 2024 | 114,527 | 55.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Flathead shifted 11.3 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Flathead has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Montana Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Flathead voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Flathead has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Flathead?
Flathead's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 22.6 points (9,421 votes) out of 43,744 total votes cast.
Has Flathead ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Flathead has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Flathead?
The widest margin on record for Flathead was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 46.0 points.
How many votes were cast in Flathead relative to its population?
In 2024, 63,140 votes were recorded in Flathead against a total population of 114,527 (55.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Flathead a presidential bellwether county?
Flathead has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Montana's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).