Saginaw, Michigan — Presidential Election Results
Saginaw, Michigan has voted Democratic in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 1.9 pts more Rep. than Michigan overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Michigan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 50,825 | 54.2% | 10.3 pts (9,673 votes) | 93,756 | — | 5.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 54,887 | 53.4% | 7.5 pts (7,722 votes) | 102,852 | -3.0 pts | 4.1 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 60,276 | 57.9% | 17.3 pts (18,051 votes) | 104,090 | +10.0 pts | 0.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 54,381 | 55.5% | 11.9 pts (11,661 votes) | 98,062 | -5.6 pts | 2.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 45,469 | 48.2% | 1.1 pts (1,073 votes) | 94,320 | -13.2 pts | 1.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 51,088 | 49.4% | 0.3 pts (303 votes) | 103,349 | +1.5 pts | 2.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 52,912 | 51.0% | 3.3 pts (3,397 votes) | 103,846 | -3.6 pts | 1.9 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 209,899 | 44.7% of population |
| 2004 | 208,489 | 49.3% of population |
| 2008 | 201,966 | 51.5% of population |
| 2012 | 198,363 | 49.4% of population |
| 2016 | 192,507 | 49.0% of population |
| 2020 | 189,883 | 54.4% of population |
| 2024 | 187,714 | 55.3% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Saginaw shifted 13.8 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Saginaw has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Michigan's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Michigan Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Saginaw voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Saginaw has voted Democratic in 5 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 2 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Saginaw?
Saginaw's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Joseph R Biden Jr (Democratic) won by 0.3 points (303 votes) out of 103,349 total votes cast.
Has Saginaw ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Saginaw changed which party won the county in: 2016, 2020, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Saginaw?
The widest margin on record for Saginaw was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 17.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Saginaw relative to its population?
In 2024, 103,846 votes were recorded in Saginaw against a total population of 187,714 (55.3% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Saginaw a presidential bellwether county?
Saginaw has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Michigan's own statewide winner in 7 of 7 (100%).