Bay, Michigan — Presidential Election Results
Bay, Michigan has voted Democratic in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2016. In 2024, it was 13.5 pts more Rep. than Michigan overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Michigan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 28,251 | 54.7% | 11.8 pts (6,101 votes) | 51,636 | — | 6.8 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 31,049 | 54.4% | 9.8 pts (5,601 votes) | 57,059 | -2.2 pts | 6.5 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 32,589 | 56.7% | 15.3 pts (8,794 votes) | 57,428 | +5.7 pts | 1.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 27,877 | 52.2% | 5.6 pts (2,966 votes) | 53,381 | -10.0 pts | 4.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 28,328 | 53.5% | 12.6 pts (6,686 votes) | 52,977 | -19.0 pts | 13.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 33,125 | 55.0% | 11.6 pts (6,974 votes) | 60,255 | +1.6 pts | 14.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 34,792 | 56.7% | 14.7 pts (9,025 votes) | 61,338 | -3.1 pts | 13.5 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 110,192 | 46.9% of population |
| 2004 | 109,453 | 52.1% of population |
| 2008 | 108,320 | 53.0% of population |
| 2012 | 106,967 | 49.9% of population |
| 2016 | 104,411 | 50.7% of population |
| 2020 | 103,747 | 58.1% of population |
| 2024 | 102,651 | 59.8% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Bay shifted 27.0 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Bay has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Michigan's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Michigan Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Bay voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Bay has voted Democratic in 4 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 3 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Bay?
Bay's closest recorded margin was in 2012, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 5.6 points (2,966 votes) out of 53,381 total votes cast.
Has Bay ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Bay changed which party won the county in: 2016, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Bay?
The widest margin on record for Bay was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 15.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Bay relative to its population?
In 2024, 61,338 votes were recorded in Bay against a total population of 102,651 (59.8% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Bay a presidential bellwether county?
Bay has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Michigan's own statewide winner in 6 of 7 (86%).