Stafford, Virginia — Presidential Election Results
Stafford, Virginia has voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Democratic in 2020. In 2024, it was 5.1 pts more Rep. than Virginia overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Virginia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 20,731 | 60.5% | 23.8 pts (8,135 votes) | 34,246 | — | 16.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 28,500 | 62.0% | 24.6 pts (11,292 votes) | 45,986 | -0.3 pts | 16.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 29,221 | 52.7% | 6.3 pts (3,505 votes) | 55,455 | +18.3 pts | 12.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 32,480 | 53.6% | 8.7 pts (5,298 votes) | 60,583 | -2.5 pts | 12.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 33,868 | 51.4% | 9.0 pts (5,960 votes) | 65,934 | -0.8 pts | 15.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 40,245 | 50.5% | 3.3 pts (2,609 votes) | 79,629 | +13.0 pts | 7.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Kamala D Harris | Democratic | 41,252 | 49.6% | 0.8 pts (662 votes) | 83,123 | -2.5 pts | 5.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 93,625 | 36.6% of population |
| 2004 | 113,798 | 40.4% of population |
| 2008 | 124,323 | 44.6% of population |
| 2012 | 133,368 | 45.4% of population |
| 2016 | 143,501 | 45.9% of population |
| 2020 | 157,767 | 50.5% of population |
| 2024 | 168,919 | 49.2% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Stafford shifted 25.2 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Stafford has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Virginia Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Stafford voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Stafford has voted Democratic in 2 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 5 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Stafford?
Stafford's closest recorded margin was in 2024, when Kamala D Harris (Democratic) won by 0.8 points (662 votes) out of 83,123 total votes cast.
Has Stafford ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Stafford changed which party won the county in: 2020, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Stafford?
The widest margin on record for Stafford was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 24.7 points.
How many votes were cast in Stafford relative to its population?
In 2024, 83,123 votes were recorded in Stafford against a total population of 168,919 (49.2% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Stafford a presidential bellwether county?
Stafford has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).