Nelson, Virginia — Presidential Election Results
Nelson, Virginia has voted Republican in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2016. In 2024, it was 13.5 pts more Rep. than Virginia overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Virginia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 2,913 | 47.4% | 0.1 pts (6 votes) | 6,145 | — | 8.2 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Democratic | 3,543 | 49.6% | 0.1 pts (4 votes) | 7,139 | +0.2 pts | 8.3 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 4,391 | 54.0% | 9.1 pts (744 votes) | 8,133 | +9.2 pts | 2.9 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 4,171 | 50.6% | 2.7 pts (224 votes) | 8,250 | -6.5 pts | 1.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 4,154 | 49.9% | 5.6 pts (465 votes) | 8,318 | -8.7 pts | 11.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,812 | 51.6% | 5.2 pts (485 votes) | 9,318 | +0.6 pts | 15.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 5,004 | 53.3% | 7.5 pts (706 votes) | 9,388 | -2.3 pts | 13.5 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 14,451 | 42.5% of population |
| 2004 | 14,699 | 48.6% of population |
| 2008 | 15,050 | 54.0% of population |
| 2012 | 14,802 | 55.7% of population |
| 2016 | 14,805 | 56.2% of population |
| 2020 | 14,739 | 63.2% of population |
| 2024 | 14,766 | 63.6% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Nelson shifted 7.5 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Nelson has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Virginia Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Nelson voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Nelson has voted Democratic in 3 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 4 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Nelson?
Nelson's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when John Kerry (Democratic) won by 0.1 points (4 votes) out of 7,139 total votes cast.
Has Nelson ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Nelson changed which party won the county in: 2004, 2016, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Nelson?
The widest margin on record for Nelson was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 9.3 points.
How many votes were cast in Nelson relative to its population?
In 2024, 9,388 votes were recorded in Nelson against a total population of 14,766 (63.6% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Nelson a presidential bellwether county?
Nelson has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).