Middlesex, Virginia — Presidential Election Results
Middlesex, Virginia has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 33.5 pts more Rep. than Virginia overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Virginia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 2,844 | 60.7% | 25.0 pts (1,173 votes) | 4,689 | — | 17.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 3,336 | 62.0% | 26.4 pts (1,422 votes) | 5,377 | -1.1 pts | 18.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 3,545 | 59.0% | 19.2 pts (1,154 votes) | 6,006 | +7.6 pts | 25.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 3,619 | 59.5% | 20.5 pts (1,249 votes) | 6,080 | -1.4 pts | 24.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 3,670 | 61.0% | 26.0 pts (1,562 votes) | 6,017 | -6.2 pts | 32.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,196 | 61.8% | 25.1 pts (1,705 votes) | 6,785 | +1.5 pts | 35.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 4,357 | 63.3% | 27.4 pts (1,884 votes) | 6,882 | -2.1 pts | 33.5 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 9,932 | 47.2% of population |
| 2004 | 10,399 | 51.7% of population |
| 2008 | 10,806 | 55.6% of population |
| 2012 | 10,850 | 56.0% of population |
| 2016 | 10,749 | 56.0% of population |
| 2020 | 10,611 | 63.9% of population |
| 2024 | 10,949 | 62.9% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Middlesex shifted 1.6 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Middlesex has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Virginia Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Middlesex voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Middlesex has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Middlesex?
Middlesex's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 19.4 points (1,154 votes) out of 6,006 total votes cast.
Has Middlesex ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Middlesex has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Middlesex?
The widest margin on record for Middlesex was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 27.6 points.
How many votes were cast in Middlesex relative to its population?
In 2024, 6,882 votes were recorded in Middlesex against a total population of 10,949 (62.9% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Middlesex a presidential bellwether county?
Middlesex has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%).