Frederick, Virginia — Presidential Election Results
Frederick, Virginia has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 34.6 pts more Rep. than Virginia overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Virginia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 14,574 | 65.1% | 33.1 pts (7,416 votes) | 22,392 | — | 25.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 19,386 | 67.9% | 36.9 pts (10,533 votes) | 28,540 | -3.2 pts | 29.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 20,149 | 59.9% | 21.4 pts (7,188 votes) | 33,612 | +15.6 pts | 28.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 22,858 | 62.8% | 27.9 pts (10,168 votes) | 36,394 | -6.9 pts | 32.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 26,083 | 64.5% | 35.0 pts (14,151 votes) | 40,440 | -8.6 pts | 42.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 30,558 | 62.7% | 27.4 pts (13,351 votes) | 48,718 | +9.3 pts | 38.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 33,117 | 63.6% | 28.4 pts (14,786 votes) | 52,040 | -0.8 pts | 34.6 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 59,639 | 37.5% of population |
| 2004 | 67,442 | 42.3% of population |
| 2008 | 76,060 | 44.2% of population |
| 2012 | 80,229 | 45.4% of population |
| 2016 | 84,638 | 47.8% of population |
| 2020 | 91,907 | 53.0% of population |
| 2024 | 98,109 | 53.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Frederick shifted 5.4 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Frederick has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Virginia Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Frederick voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Frederick has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Frederick?
Frederick's closest recorded margin was in 2008, when John McCain (Republican) won by 21.7 points (7,188 votes) out of 33,612 total votes cast.
Has Frederick ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Frederick has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Frederick?
The widest margin on record for Frederick was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 37.3 points.
How many votes were cast in Frederick relative to its population?
In 2024, 52,040 votes were recorded in Frederick against a total population of 98,109 (53.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Frederick a presidential bellwether county?
Frederick has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 2 of 7 (29%).