Caroline, Virginia — Presidential Election Results
Caroline, Virginia has voted Republican in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2016. In 2024, it was 14.8 pts more Rep. than Virginia overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Virginia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Al Gore | Democratic | 4,314 | 51.7% | 5.3 pts (441 votes) | 8,351 | — | 13.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 4,999 | 50.2% | 1.2 pts (121 votes) | 9,954 | -6.6 pts | 7.0 pts more Dem. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 7,163 | 55.4% | 12.0 pts (1,546 votes) | 12,919 | +13.3 pts | 5.7 pts more Dem. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 7,276 | 53.3% | 8.2 pts (1,125 votes) | 13,652 | -3.7 pts | 4.4 pts more Dem. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 7,147 | 48.1% | 4.8 pts (715 votes) | 14,863 | -13.6 pts | 10.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 8,336 | 51.2% | 4.2 pts (679 votes) | 16,288 | +1.0 pts | 14.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 9,511 | 53.9% | 8.8 pts (1,554 votes) | 17,653 | -4.7 pts | 14.8 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 22,136 | 37.7% of population |
| 2004 | 23,920 | 41.6% of population |
| 2008 | 28,011 | 46.1% of population |
| 2012 | 28,949 | 47.2% of population |
| 2016 | 30,099 | 49.4% of population |
| 2020 | 30,929 | 52.7% of population |
| 2024 | 33,477 | 52.7% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Caroline shifted 14.3 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Caroline has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Virginia Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Caroline voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Caroline has voted Democratic in 3 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 4 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Caroline?
Caroline's closest recorded margin was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 1.2 points (121 votes) out of 9,954 total votes cast.
Has Caroline ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Caroline changed which party won the county in: 2004, 2008, 2016, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Caroline?
The widest margin on record for Caroline was in 2008, when Barack Obama (Democratic) won by 12.1 points.
How many votes were cast in Caroline relative to its population?
In 2024, 17,653 votes were recorded in Caroline against a total population of 33,477 (52.7% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Caroline a presidential bellwether county?
Caroline has matched the national popular winner in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections (71%), and Virginia's own statewide winner in 3 of 7 (43%).