Caroline, Maryland — Presidential Election Results
Caroline, Maryland has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 68.4 pts more Rep. than Maryland overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Maryland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 5,300 | 59.2% | 21.3 pts (1,904 votes) | 8,952 | — | 38.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 7,396 | 65.1% | 31.6 pts (3,586 votes) | 11,356 | -10.1 pts | 45.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 8,015 | 60.6% | 23.0 pts (3,044 votes) | 13,218 | +8.6 pts | 49.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 8,098 | 60.6% | 23.4 pts (3,128 votes) | 13,357 | -0.5 pts | 50.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 9,368 | 66.4% | 38.0 pts (5,359 votes) | 14,113 | -16.1 pts | 68.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 10,283 | 65.1% | 32.8 pts (5,188 votes) | 15,794 | +6.3 pts | 67.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 11,053 | 67.7% | 37.9 pts (6,193 votes) | 16,330 | -5.2 pts | 68.4 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 29,773 | 30.1% of population |
| 2004 | 30,653 | 37.0% of population |
| 2008 | 32,983 | 40.1% of population |
| 2012 | 32,629 | 40.9% of population |
| 2016 | 32,840 | 43.0% of population |
| 2020 | 33,277 | 47.5% of population |
| 2024 | 34,248 | 47.7% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Caroline shifted 17.0 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Caroline has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Maryland's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Maryland Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Caroline voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Caroline has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Caroline?
Caroline's closest recorded margin was in 2000, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 21.9 points (1,904 votes) out of 8,952 total votes cast.
Has Caroline ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Caroline has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Caroline?
The widest margin on record for Caroline was in 2016, when Donald Trump (Republican) won by 40.1 points.
How many votes were cast in Caroline relative to its population?
In 2024, 16,330 votes were recorded in Caroline against a total population of 34,248 (47.7% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Caroline a presidential bellwether county?
Caroline has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Maryland's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%).