Lucas, Iowa — Presidential Election Results
Lucas, Iowa has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 35.4 pts more Rep. than Iowa overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. Iowa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 2,262 | 52.6% | 7.6 pts (328 votes) | 4,303 | — | 8.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 2,543 | 55.6% | 12.2 pts (556 votes) | 4,571 | -4.5 pts | 11.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 2,330 | 52.1% | 6.7 pts (301 votes) | 4,471 | +5.4 pts | 16.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 2,254 | 52.1% | 6.2 pts (267 votes) | 4,323 | +0.6 pts | 12.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 2,877 | 66.1% | 37.6 pts (1,638 votes) | 4,354 | -33.5 pts | 29.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 3,295 | 71.2% | 43.4 pts (2,011 votes) | 4,630 | -4.1 pts | 35.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 3,400 | 73.2% | 48.0 pts (2,231 votes) | 4,646 | -4.9 pts | 35.4 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 9,369 | 45.9% of population |
| 2004 | 9,508 | 48.1% of population |
| 2008 | 9,137 | 48.9% of population |
| 2012 | 8,778 | 49.2% of population |
| 2016 | 8,555 | 50.9% of population |
| 2020 | 8,620 | 53.7% of population |
| 2024 | 8,758 | 53.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Lucas shifted 41.0 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Lucas has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Iowa's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other Iowa Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lucas voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Lucas has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Lucas?
Lucas's closest recorded margin was in 2012, when Mitt Romney (Republican) won by 6.3 points (267 votes) out of 4,323 total votes cast.
Has Lucas ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Lucas has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Lucas?
The widest margin on record for Lucas was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 48.8 points.
How many votes were cast in Lucas relative to its population?
In 2024, 4,646 votes were recorded in Lucas against a total population of 8,758 (53.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Lucas a presidential bellwether county?
Lucas has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and Iowa's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).