Stanislaus, California — Presidential Election Results
Stanislaus, California has voted Democratic in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 32.1 pts more Rep. than California overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. California |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 67,188 | 52.4% | 8.4 pts (10,740 votes) | 128,267 | — | 21.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 85,407 | 58.7% | 18.3 pts (26,578 votes) | 145,514 | -9.7 pts | 28.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 80,279 | 49.9% | 1.7 pts (2,782 votes) | 161,015 | +20.2 pts | 22.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 77,724 | 50.0% | 2.7 pts (4,265 votes) | 155,369 | +1.1 pts | 20.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 81,647 | 47.4% | 1.8 pts (3,153 votes) | 172,146 | -0.9 pts | 30.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 105,841 | 49.2% | 0.8 pts (1,696 votes) | 214,954 | -1.2 pts | 29.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 106,986 | 54.2% | 11.0 pts (21,639 votes) | 197,472 | -12.1 pts | 32.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 449,471 | 28.5% of population |
| 2004 | 492,613 | 29.5% of population |
| 2008 | 509,032 | 31.6% of population |
| 2012 | 520,424 | 29.9% of population |
| 2016 | 539,255 | 31.9% of population |
| 2020 | 553,710 | 38.8% of population |
| 2024 | 556,972 | 35.5% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Stanislaus shifted 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Stanislaus has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other California Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Stanislaus voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Stanislaus has voted Democratic in 4 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 3 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Stanislaus?
Stanislaus's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Joseph R Biden Jr (Democratic) won by 0.8 points (1,696 votes) out of 214,954 total votes cast.
Has Stanislaus ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Stanislaus changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Stanislaus?
The widest margin on record for Stanislaus was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 18.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Stanislaus relative to its population?
In 2024, 197,472 votes were recorded in Stanislaus against a total population of 556,972 (35.5% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Stanislaus a presidential bellwether county?
Stanislaus has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).