San Joaquin, California — Presidential Election Results
San Joaquin, California has voted Democratic in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 21.7 pts more Rep. than California overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. California |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 81,773 | 48.9% | 1.2 pts (1,997 votes) | 167,239 | — | 13.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 100,978 | 53.3% | 7.4 pts (13,966 votes) | 189,505 | -6.2 pts | 17.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 113,974 | 54.4% | 10.7 pts (22,367 votes) | 209,349 | +18.3 pts | 13.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 114,121 | 55.8% | 13.7 pts (28,050 votes) | 204,697 | +3.1 pts | 9.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 121,124 | 54.0% | 14.4 pts (32,188 votes) | 224,166 | +1.3 pts | 16.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 161,137 | 55.9% | 13.9 pts (40,039 votes) | 288,492 | -1.1 pts | 15.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 128,996 | 48.9% | 0.9 pts (2,349 votes) | 263,671 | -15.1 pts | 21.7 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 567,885 | 29.4% of population |
| 2004 | 642,898 | 29.5% of population |
| 2008 | 671,692 | 31.2% of population |
| 2012 | 699,593 | 29.3% of population |
| 2016 | 732,809 | 30.6% of population |
| 2020 | 780,676 | 37.0% of population |
| 2024 | 816,108 | 32.3% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in San Joaquin shifted 0.3 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
San Joaquin has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other California Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has San Joaquin voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, San Joaquin has voted Democratic in 4 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 3 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in San Joaquin?
San Joaquin's closest recorded margin was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 0.9 points (2,349 votes) out of 263,671 total votes cast.
Has San Joaquin ever flipped between parties?
Yes. San Joaquin changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in San Joaquin?
The widest margin on record for San Joaquin was in 2016, when Hillary Clinton (Democratic) won by 15.3 points.
How many votes were cast in San Joaquin relative to its population?
In 2024, 263,671 votes were recorded in San Joaquin against a total population of 816,108 (32.3% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is San Joaquin a presidential bellwether county?
San Joaquin has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).