Merced, California — Presidential Election Results
Merced, California has voted Democratic in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). It most recently flipped to Republican in 2024. In 2024, it was 25.3 pts more Rep. than California overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. California |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 26,102 | 51.8% | 6.7 pts (3,376 votes) | 50,418 | — | 19.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 32,773 | 56.6% | 14.3 pts (8,282 votes) | 57,945 | -7.5 pts | 24.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 34,031 | 53.3% | 8.3 pts (5,327 votes) | 63,808 | +23.0 pts | 16.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Democratic | 33,005 | 53.2% | 8.7 pts (5,424 votes) | 62,057 | +0.5 pts | 14.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 37,317 | 52.7% | 12.1 pts (8,592 votes) | 70,789 | +4.1 pts | 19.2 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Joseph R Biden Jr | Democratic | 48,991 | 54.1% | 10.6 pts (9,594 votes) | 90,554 | -2.2 pts | 19.0 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 43,955 | 50.9% | 4.4 pts (3,765 votes) | 86,392 | -15.3 pts | 25.3 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 212,258 | 23.8% of population |
| 2004 | 237,180 | 24.4% of population |
| 2008 | 250,538 | 25.5% of population |
| 2012 | 260,867 | 23.8% of population |
| 2016 | 267,628 | 26.5% of population |
| 2020 | 282,963 | 32.0% of population |
| 2024 | 296,774 | 29.1% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Merced shifted 2.4 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Merced has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other California Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Merced voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Merced has voted Democratic in 4 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 3 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Merced?
Merced's closest recorded margin was in 2024, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 4.5 points (3,765 votes) out of 86,392 total votes cast.
Has Merced ever flipped between parties?
Yes. Merced changed which party won the county in: 2008, 2024, based on the 2000-2024 record on this page.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Merced?
The widest margin on record for Merced was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 14.5 points.
How many votes were cast in Merced relative to its population?
In 2024, 86,392 votes were recorded in Merced against a total population of 296,774 (29.1% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Merced a presidential bellwether county?
Merced has matched the national popular winner in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections (86%), and California's own statewide winner in 4 of 7 (57%).