Madera, California — Presidential Election Results
Madera, California has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 42.1 pts more Rep. than California overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. California |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 20,283 | 60.7% | 25.9 pts (8,633 votes) | 33,395 | — | 39.4 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 24,871 | 64.1% | 29.4 pts (11,390 votes) | 38,780 | -2.7 pts | 39.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 23,583 | 55.7% | 13.3 pts (5,631 votes) | 42,355 | +16.1 pts | 38.1 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 22,852 | 57.3% | 17.1 pts (6,834 votes) | 39,866 | -4.0 pts | 41.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 23,357 | 54.2% | 14.7 pts (6,328 votes) | 43,112 | +1.9 pts | 47.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 29,378 | 54.7% | 11.6 pts (6,210 votes) | 53,732 | +3.9 pts | 41.6 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 32,344 | 59.2% | 20.8 pts (11,363 votes) | 54,624 | -9.5 pts | 42.1 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 123,587 | 27.0% of population |
| 2004 | 137,106 | 28.3% of population |
| 2008 | 148,359 | 28.5% of population |
| 2012 | 151,527 | 26.3% of population |
| 2016 | 153,956 | 28.0% of population |
| 2020 | 156,434 | 34.3% of population |
| 2024 | 165,432 | 33.0% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Madera shifted 5.7 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Madera has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and California's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other California Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Madera voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Madera has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Madera?
Madera's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 11.8 points (6,210 votes) out of 53,732 total votes cast.
Has Madera ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Madera has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Madera?
The widest margin on record for Madera was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 29.7 points.
How many votes were cast in Madera relative to its population?
In 2024, 54,624 votes were recorded in Madera against a total population of 165,432 (33.0% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Madera a presidential bellwether county?
Madera has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and California's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%).