Kern, California — Presidential Election Results
Kern, California has voted Republican in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections on record (2000–2024). In 2024, it was 42.4 pts more Rep. than California overall.
Jump to year: 2000 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2016 · 2020 · 2024
Full Election History, 2000–2024
| Year | Winner | Party | Votes | Vote Share | Margin | Total Votes Cast | Swing | Vs. California |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Republican | 110,663 | 60.7% | 24.5 pts (44,660 votes) | 182,308 | — | 37.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 140,417 | 66.6% | 34.1 pts (71,814 votes) | 210,858 | -9.1 pts | 44.5 pts more Rep. |
| 2008 | John McCain | Republican | 134,793 | 57.9% | 17.8 pts (41,336 votes) | 232,850 | +16.2 pts | 42.7 pts more Rep. |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | Republican | 126,618 | 57.2% | 16.8 pts (37,123 votes) | 221,472 | +0.9 pts | 40.9 pts more Rep. |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Republican | 129,584 | 53.1% | 12.7 pts (30,895 votes) | 244,163 | +3.6 pts | 45.8 pts more Rep. |
| 2020 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 164,484 | 53.9% | 10.2 pts (31,118 votes) | 305,292 | +3.1 pts | 40.3 pts more Rep. |
| 2024 | Donald J Trump | Republican | 167,879 | 59.3% | 21.1 pts (59,638 votes) | 283,246 | -11.2 pts | 42.4 pts more Rep. |
Population Context
Total Census Bureau population estimate for the county that year, and recorded votes as a share of that total population. This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
| Year | County Population | Votes Cast (% of Population) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 663,803 | 27.5% of population |
| 2004 | 736,296 | 28.6% of population |
| 2008 | 818,327 | 28.5% of population |
| 2012 | 853,606 | 25.9% of population |
| 2016 | 880,856 | 27.7% of population |
| 2020 | 906,124 | 33.7% of population |
| 2024 | 922,529 | 30.7% of population |
Trend
Between 2000 and 2024, the two-party presidential margin in Kern shifted 3.7 points toward the Democratic candidate, based on recorded county returns. This reflects the vote totals in this dataset only; no claim is made here about the causes of that shift.
Margin Over Time
Democratic candidate's margin (percentage points, two-party vote share). Positive values favor the Democratic candidate; negative values favor the Republican candidate.
Bellwether Status
Kern has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and California's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%). Compare every county on the bellwether counties page.
Related Pages
Other California Counties
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Kern voted in presidential elections since 2000?
Since 2000, Kern has voted Democratic in 0 of 7 recorded presidential elections and Republican in 7 of 7, based on county-level returns through 2024.
What was the closest presidential election in Kern?
Kern's closest recorded margin was in 2020, when Donald J Trump (Republican) won by 10.4 points (31,118 votes) out of 305,292 total votes cast.
Has Kern ever flipped between parties?
Not in the 2000-2024 record on this page -- Kern has voted for the same party in every recorded presidential election in that span.
What is the largest presidential election margin recorded in Kern?
The widest margin on record for Kern was in 2004, when George W. Bush (Republican) won by 34.4 points.
How many votes were cast in Kern relative to its population?
In 2024, 283,246 votes were recorded in Kern against a total population of 922,529 (30.7% of the total population). This is a population-based figure, not a turnout rate against eligible or registered voters, which this site does not calculate.
Is Kern a presidential bellwether county?
Kern has matched the national popular winner in 4 of the last 7 presidential elections (57%), and California's own statewide winner in 0 of 7 (0%).